Whither Tasmania? A note on Tasmania's population problem

Abstract

Tasmania has recently experienced four consecutive years of net population decline. In total these years have witnessed the net loss of 4,000 people. However, in the 18 to 38 age group category, the net loss has been substantially greater, 11,400 over the past four years, and nearly 19,000 (12.5 per cent at that age) over the past decade. This paper argues that the emerging age structure, which is beginning to resemble an apple core, poses a massive threat to Tasmania’s future. The paper outlines the dynamics of intrinsic (natural) population decline, projected to begin in Tasmania somewhat earlier than in Australia, and the unique problems Tasmania faces in trying to resolve this seeming inevitable problem with replacement migration. A range of fertility and migration scenarios that would produce moderate positive growth are described, and policy issues are indicated.